Fishers of the future

The 'Fishers of the Future' foresight study is an EU-wide participatory project launched by the European Commission to examine the future role of fishers in society up to 2050. Running from October 2023 to the end of 2024, the study is looking into fishers' hopes, fears, expectations and needs, to understand how the profession is likely to evolve by 2050. The study focuses on fishers working in the waters of its 22 coastal Member States.

By better understanding possible trajectories of fishers’ roles and industry at large, we can better design policies that support sustainable, thriving, and inclusive fisheries for the long-term.

The study includes 3 phases:

• Phase 1: the development of baseline profiles of fishers in today’s world (see profiles below). The purpose is to outline the main features of a broad range of fishers currently working in EU waters. Additional details on methodology can be found below.
• Phase 2: exploring the future scenarios in which fishers might be living and working in 2050. Using research conducted at national level, existing foresight trends and stakeholder input, the study identified key drivers of change in the fishing world, which served as the basis for scenarios of the future. Additional details on methodology can be found below.
• Phase 3: the development of profiles of fishers in 2050, using the drivers and scenarios previously developed. This phase has not started yet.

What is foresight?

Foresight explores long-term futures and creates shared visions for policy-making projects. The foresight approach provides the tools for exploring the mid- to long-term future in a systematic, participatory and inclusive way. The resulting collective intelligence and systemic view allows for a better understanding of the possible future consequences of current trends and emerging developments. New insights are generated to inform today’s decision making and thus to shape the future.

More information on the European Commission’s use of foresight.

Developing profiles of today’s fishers

A first step in the foresight process is to develop a snapshot of the situation today. For this study, this means developing profiles capturing a range of current characteristics of fishers across the EU.

The creation of such profiles is a systematic process that draws both from empirical data and the informed opinions of stakeholders. It is not strictly bound by the same rigorous empirical requirements as a scientific study, because its aim is to stimulate thinking, discussion, and strategic planning around possible future conditions and challenges.

To develop the profiles, the study team used multiple sources of information in an iterative, consultative manner.

22 country reports (coastal Member States) were drawn up by national experts from each country and based on:

• A review of national literature in each country
• Group discussions and interviews on the ground, based on a determined set of questions, with:
  • Around 200 fishers from the 22 EU coastal Member States
  • Other stakeholders such as fisheries local action groups (FLAGs), managing authorities, and fisheries research organisations, including the outermost regions
• Surveys for countries with less in-person engagement of fishers

These national reports were further complemented by a review of relevant European and international literature, including from the Scientific Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), along with input and suggestions from the Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (DG MARE).

12 profiles of today’s fishers were subsequently presented and discussed with stakeholders for their feedback and were open to public consultation until 30 April 2024. On the basis of the feedback, adjustments were made to the initial 12 profiles, which became 11.

Exploring the drivers of change, challenges and future scenarios

The next phase of the study is exploring future scenarios in which fishers might be living and working in 2050.

Based on input from the research conducted at national level, foresight evidence from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and IPSOS’s megatrends as well as expert knowledge, an initial analysis was done of megatrends, relevant drivers of the transitions and concrete challenges.

To test and validate the drivers and challenges identified, a survey was conducted with a wide range of fisheries stakeholders. This survey ran for seven weeks and received 180 responses from fishers and fishers' representative bodies, civil society, academia, national/regional and EU institutions. The survey served to identify the drivers perceived as most important and uncertain for EU fishers and the most important challenges facing fishers.

Based on the results of the survey, future scenarios are being developed through a series of workshops with representative stakeholders.

• The first of these workshops took place on 19 March 2024, with the survey results used as a stimulus to discuss the most impactful and uncertain drivers of change.
• The second and third workshops are looking into alternative ways that each driver might play out (axes of uncertainty). The third workshop will also explore different combinations of the drivers and their uncertainty to consider several alternative scenario matrices.

Possible evolutions of today’s fishers up to 2050

The next step is the key output of the study. It will consider how these drivers and challenges might impact and shape and change the profiles up to 2050. New profiles may also emerge.

Stakeholders will be provided an opportunity to comment on them once they have been developed.

The ‘Fishers of the Future’ study is a key element of the ‘Pact for Fisheries and Oceans’, announced in February 2023, to examine the future role of fishers in society up to 2050.

The Fishers of the Future study is an EU-wide participatory project that will examine the future role of fishers in society up to 2050.

Tetra Tech International Development is leading this study for the European Commission, with partner organisations Poseidon Aquatic Resource Management Europe and Ipsos, and experts from F&S, Trinomics, and national researchers from the 22 EU coastal Member States.